Impact of the Euro 2020 championship on the spread of COVID-19
2023 | journal article. A publication with affiliation to the University of Göttingen.
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Impact of the Euro 2020 championship on the spread of COVID-19
Dehning, J.; Mohr, S. B.; Contreras, S.; Dönges, P.; Iftekhar, E. N.; Schulz, O. & Bechtle, P. et al. (2023)
Nature Communications, 14(1). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-35512-x
Documents & Media
Details
- Authors
- Dehning, Jonas; Mohr, Sebastian B.; Contreras, Sebastian; Dönges, Philipp; Iftekhar, Emil N.; Schulz, Oliver; Bechtle, Philip; Priesemann, Viola
- Abstract
- Abstract Large-scale events like the UEFA Euro 2020 football (soccer) championship offer a unique opportunity to quantify the impact of gatherings on the spread of COVID-19, as the number and dates of matches played by participating countries resembles a randomized study. Using Bayesian modeling and the gender imbalance in COVID-19 data, we attribute 840,000 (95% CI: [0.39M, 1.26M]) COVID-19 cases across 12 countries to the championship. The impact depends non-linearly on the initial incidence, the reproduction number R , and the number of matches played. The strongest effects are seen in Scotland and England, where as much as 10,000 primary cases per million inhabitants occur from championship-related gatherings. The average match-induced increase in R was 0.46 [0.18, 0.75] on match days, but important matches caused an increase as large as +3. Altogether, our results provide quantitative insights that help judge and mitigate the impact of large-scale events on pandemic spread.
- Issue Date
- 2023
- Journal
- Nature Communications
- Project
- EXC 2067: Multiscale Bioimaging
- Working Group
- RG Priesemann (Physics, Complex Systems & Neural Networks)
- eISSN
- 2041-1723
- Language
- English
